I feel like it’s taking forever to happen, but we are getting closer now. With less than 3 weeks before the redemption tokens drop, it is time to take a look at the first ever NFT Grail that Funko offered us.
In Guess the value, we try to estimate what could be the value of a Digital Pop! on the secondary market once it hits eBay and other platforms and also what the value could reach after a few years.
Of course this is all fun and games and based on my personal opinion. Do not take my word for it and do you own due diligence before investing in an NFT.
If you haven’t read the first editions of this game, I suggest you go read previous articles in which I try to estimate the values of the other TMNT redeemable NFTs.
Today I will speculate on the value of the TMNT Grail – Leonardo.
Being a Limited Edition of only 999, it makes that Pop a very rare item. We often see LE 1,500 – 2,000 – 3,000 which are common LE sizes. But when it is under 1,000, we are in a completely different category. Funko does not release so many of those anymore. Actually the Digital line seems to be their new outlet for very limited items. Pretty good thing for us right? At the time of writing this post, there are currently 877 copies that have been found in packs. It would be fair to believe that around 950 copies will be found and redeemed at the end. There are still a lot of packs that will probably be opened during the final stretch.
I am not a TMNT expert. I am not even sure I’ve ever seen a movie from beginning to end. But I did a simple search on Google to bring some meat to the table here and from what I’ve found, Leonardo can be considered the leader of the group. I suppose that is why he has been chosen to be the first grail.
Leo eats, sleeps and breathes ninjutsu, which is probably why he was chosen by Master Splinter to be the leader of the Ninja Turtles. Keeping his rowdy brothers in line can be hard, but Leo never lets anything get in the way of their strong teamwork when it comes to defeating villains.
All deep researches and high quality journalism aside, the main asset this little turtle has is the scarcity. Leonardo is not a Marvel or Star Wars character. So that puts him in a second category of popularity, yet being 999 (or under) will give it an automatic appeal to TMNT collectors.
You can buy the NFT for $450 on AtomicHub.
As we’ve seen in my previous Guess the value posts, the price range can be very wide for two Pops of similar edition size. Many LE 500 Pops are only worth $300 while others are worth well over $1,500. So I find it a bit useless to try to compare it to similar items on the market. It wouldn’t mean anything. There is no trend. It is a case by case thing.
When it comes down to treasures like that, in my opinion the most important factor is age.
These rare items gain value over time. Why? Mainly because as years pass, quantity in existence decreases. Fire, flood, death, etc. A plethora of reasons can explain the destruction of these rare items. Also, once an item like that gets into the hands of a true collectors, it stays there pretty much forever or at least for a very long time. That reduces the available quantity on the market even more.
Based on that fact, it doesn’t help our friend Leo here. Being a newly released Pop, its start at the bottom of the ladder. It will climb up in value, but it will take time. A lot of time.
The design of the Pop could be a major factor too in the current case. How is the “Thermal” finish going to look like? Funko could hit a home run if they do this well and give us a new an improved thermal finish. On the other end they could ruin it by giving us another Predator Hound.
My value prediction
No one knows how the market will receive the first grail item.
I am not as optimistic as many other people are. I could definitely be wrong. I think we have to separate and forget the NFT notion once the Pop hits the market. It will be consider as a regular limited Pop like all others and if people don’t like the look or simply don’t feel like investing that much on a TMNT Pop, the value won’t follow.
The design will make of break that Pop.
I estimate the mid-term (6 months) value to be $500 and the long term value (2 years+) to reach $550. Yes, I don’t see it gain much value over time. It’s limited, but at the same time, not so limited. But I will say something. If somehow Funko creates a beauty thermal look, I would increase my estimate to $750.
Disclaimer: Everything mentioned in this article is only my own opinion and should not be considered as investment advice.
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