Guess the value – Casey Jones

Casey Jones

In the Guess the value posts I try to estimate what could be the value of a Digital Pop! on the secondary market once it hits eBay and other platforms and also what the value could reach after a few years.

Of course this is all fun and games and based on my personal opinion. Do not take my word for it and do you own due diligence before investing in an NFT.

General information

Today I will speculate on the value of the Legendary NFT – Casey Jones.

This Pop is part of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and will have a maximum edition size of 1,467.

Popularity potential

There is no doubt here, TMNT is a very popular set. Several Funko products from line are selling everyday whether they are Pops, Sodas or Vynls, the demand is there. That is very positive. We know it has potentially a lot of people that will be looking to add this item to their collection.

The other thing that could boost its popularity is the fact that in October 2021, Funko released a new wave of TMNT Pops called “The Secret of the Ooze“. The timing couldn’t be better. This new line follows the “Retro Toys” released at the end of 2020. So again all that is super exciting as Funko continue to produce new items in that set which keeps collectors active.

Comparables

Casey Jones will have a maximum edition size of 1,467. It will most likely be closer to 1,425 – 1,450 in my opinion as not all packs will be opened and not all tokens will be redeemed. But for the purpose of this article, let’s just say they are all redeemed. This remains a very limited figure and that is what makes it a bit harder to compare with other existing items in the same set.

SDCC – Limited Edition 1,008 – Metallic

Let’s not talk about the 4-packs and the tin. Those are worth a lot of money but if we compare to single Pop, the most valuable ones in TMNT collection at the moment are the 2013 SDCC Metallic turtles. They all four fetch between $550 and $650, Leonardo being the most valuable. So I think we can set the ceiling here. We know Casey will not reach those levels.

The reasons for that are easy to identify. First, these are from 2013 and were among the first TMNT ever released. They have over 8 years of maturity. Time always has a positive impact on value of sought after collectibles. They are also Metallic and limited to only 1,008. After over 8 years of lot of those have been destroyed in fire, flood, box opened and thrown in the garbage, part of the collection of someone who died and the family didn’t know the value and disposed of them, etc. The supply could actually be much much lower than 1,008 after so many years.

So let’s all agree that Casey will never reach this kind of value.

Best commons

Now let’s try to establish the floor price. We won’t compare Casey to regular common Pops that we can still find in retail stores. Those are worth $10-$15 and obviously Casey is far from being common.

But let’s have a look at the OG common Pops. Back in 2013, production size was much smaller than what we see nowadays. We don’t have the exact number, but I would estimate it was probably closer to 5,000 – 7,500. I base this a bit by looking at the number of people owning them on HobbyDB. It is not totally accurate, but it gives a good idea. Funko was still at an early stage, the demand was not high and most of the current hottest old pops were on clearance back then. That is why produced quantities were still low overall. The collectibles world was not what it is now.

  • Bebop : $175
  • Rocksteady : $175
  • Foot Soldier : $120
  • April O’Neill : $60

These are currently the 4 most valuable common TMNT Pops. As I estimated, they production number was at least 3-4 times more than Casey. But the fact that they are now 8 years old, compensate a bit, a lot of the copies have also been destroyed over the years.

So I would take these to set the floor price. I don’t think Casey will be below the average price of these Pops. So let’s go with $100 bottom value.

Exclusive 8-Bits – Foot Soldier

I would like to give a little look at some Exclusive Pops that were release at NYCC 2017. I think they represent another good point of comparison because they were quite recently released and they were Limited to 500. Yes, that is 3 times less than Casey, but they are 8-Bits Pops. These don’t fetch as much. They are not so popular and not only in that set, its the same in other collections too.

That was a set of five Foot Soldiers of different colors. They are worth between $100 and $160. That is another solid argument when trying to figure out the floor price of this Digital Pop!

Baxter Stockman

Before giving my final thoughts, I would also like to mention a few other clues that could help figuring out the price. There was a Baxter – GITD released at SDCC 2017. I don’t have the production number, but from HobbyDB holders, I can estimate it was around 1,500. Very same area as Casey and that Pop is currently worth around $250. Casey is not the most popular character but he his more popular than Baxter. They are very similar, but I would give a little edge to Mr. Jones. The fact that Baxter is GITD is a major asset though.

My value prediction

Based on all the observations mentioned in this article I am ready to give my value prediction. I consider the fact that the item is pretty limited, it is part of the first Digital Pops released by Funko and it is in a very popular set. On the other hand, it is not the most popular character and being all black doesn’t make it particularly appealing to display.

I estimate the mid-term (6 months) value to be $175 and the long term value (2 years+) to reach $275.

The current price as of today to buy Casey Jones NFT on Atomic Hub is $119.

Disclaimer: Everything mentioned in this article is only my own opinion and should not be considered as investment advice.

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